A potential return to normal Suez Canal routings is set to reshape global container ship demand significantly. The Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO) indicates that this shift could lead to a decrease in ship demand by approximately 10 per cent in the coming years.
Starting January, CMA CGM plans to fully reinstate its INDAMEX service through the Suez Canal, with its MEX service also incorporating the canal on its back-haul leg from Europe to Asia. If these routes prove successful, it’s likely that other carriers will follow suit and adjust their services accordingly.
BIMCO’s Container Shipping Market Overview and Outlook for December reveals expectations for supply and demand growth to remain relatively balanced through 2026. Supply is projected to grow by 3 per cent, while demand growth is anticipated to fall between 2.5 and 3.5 per cent. However, forecasts for 2027 indicate that supply may slightly outpace demand, with a growth estimate of 3.5 per cent compared to a demand range of 2.5 to 3.5 per cent.
The potential return to normal Suez Canal routing is pivotal; it alone could reduce ship demand by 10 per cent. Furthermore, if sailing speeds do not decline as expected, the effective supply could increase by an additional 1.2 percentage points annually.
On the demand side, the International Monetary Fund estimates global economic growth at 3.1 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027. Despite ongoing pressures from US tariff increases, growth has shown resilience, particularly in the global manufacturing sector, which has maintained a PMI above 50 for the past four months. However, retail sales in the US, EU, and China have grown by less than 2 per cent year-on-year recently, indicating a slowdown, while US consumer confidence remains near record lows.
The increase in likelihood for a return to normal Suez Canal routes has been reinforced by CMA CGM’s announcement of its MEX service resuming its passage through the canal. With these adjustments, BIMCO anticipates that by the end of 2027, global fleet capacity will exceed 36 million TEU. This growth is expected to focus on larger vessels, with an anticipated 20 per cent increase in capacity for ships over 12,000 TEU, contrasting with a decline in the smallest size segments.
BIMCO’s forecast also includes an increase of 750,000 TEU of recycling in 2026–2027, marking a significant rise compared to the previous nine years. This recycling effort aims to address the estimated 1.8 million TEU overhang that has accumulated over the last five years.
Port congestion saw an uptick in 2025, largely due to delays at Chinese ports, and average sailing speeds declined marginally but remained higher than previous years. The capacity-weighted average sailing speed fell to 14.7 knots in 2025, a slight decrease from 14.8 knots in 2024, yet still improved compared to 14.4 knots in 2023. BIMCO has factored in a projected 0.25-knot annual reduction in average sailing speeds for both 2026 and 2027, which, if not realised, could lead to a faster growth rate of effective supply.
Looking to North America, import container volumes are expected to contract by 3 per cent in 2025, with negative growth anticipated in the first half of 2026. However, a return to growth is forecast for the latter half of 2026, leading to an overall growth of around 2 per cent in both 2026 and 2027.
Despite these forecasts, risks remain present. Up to 70 per cent of US economic growth in 2025 may stem from AI investments and the wealth generated from rising AI-related share prices. BIMCO’s chief shipping analyst, Niels Rasmussen, cautions that a significant decline in the AI market could severely impact the US economy and, by extension, global container ship demand.
