turkish inflation — Turkish inflation has eased to 32.87% annually in October, falling below analysts’ expectations. The monthly inflation rate also decreased to 2.55%, according to data released on Monday by the Turkish Statistics Institute.
- Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek expressed doubts about achieving the year-end inflation forecast range of 25-29%. However, he remains optimistic about a strong disinflation trend continuing into 2026.
- Producer prices also reflected inflationary pressures, rising by 1.63% month-on-month in October, which corresponds to a 27% annual increase.
A Reuters poll had anticipated an annual inflation rate of 33.24% and a monthly rise of 2.83%. This unexpected decline in inflation could influence the central bank’s approach regarding its ongoing interest rate adjustments.
The consumer price inflation (CPI) for the heavily weighted food group reported an annual increase of 34.9% and a monthly rise of 3.4%. Housing inflation, however, has surged past 50% annually, while clothing experienced a significant monthly increase of over 12%.
September’s figures had indicated an annual inflation rate of 33.3% and a monthly rate of 3.2%, marking a trend where CPI consistently exceeded expectations. This led the central bank to implement a 100-point cut in interest rates last month, bringing them down to 39.5%. Analysts were closely watching the October figures, with some suggesting the bank might pause its easing if inflation exceeded forecasts.
Minutes from the central bank’s recent meeting highlighted concerns about disinflation risks, particularly from food prices. The central bank noted that inflation expectations had risen in October, despite a slowdown in the pace of food price increases.
Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek expressed doubts about achieving the year-end inflation forecast range of 25-29%. However, he remains optimistic about a strong disinflation trend continuing into 2026.
Producer prices also reflected inflationary pressures, rising by 1.63% month-on-month in October, which corresponds to a 27% annual increase.
