ai employment — The adoption of artificial intelligence tools has changed employment patterns in the United States labour market, according to new research from the European Central Bank (ECB).
- ai employment — The adoption of artificial intelligence tools has changed employment patterns in the United States labour market, according to new research from the European Central Bank (ECB).
- This trend has accelerated notably since the emergence of ChatGPT in late 2022, underscoring the rapid changes brought about by advances in AI technology.
While the overall effect on total employment remains modest, the study highlights a clear trend where jobs deemed at high risk of AI substitution have experienced a decline in growth. Senior Economist Isabella Moder and economist Til Pommer conducted an in-depth analysis, focusing on the US as a leading indicator for global employment trends.
Moder and Pommer emphasised that the US, known for its advanced early-adopting firms and flexible labour market, serves as an ideal backdrop to observe these transitions before they manifest in other major economies.
Ai employment: Shifting Job Growth Dynamics
The research utilised an index designed to identify occupations based on their vulnerability to AI replacement. It found that employment in high-risk roles, such as economists and graphic designers, fell by over 4% between 2019 and 2025. In contrast, occupations viewed as low-risk for AI substitution, like electricians and high school teachers, experienced a notable 13% increase in employment during the same timeframe.
This shift has led to a transformation in the workforce composition. The share of low-risk jobs increased from 23% to 25%, while high-risk occupations saw a decrease from 35% to 33%. The study noted that, after accounting for sector-specific factors and external shocks, including the pandemic, there is a widening gap in job growth between high-risk and low-risk roles. From 2019 to 2025, jobs classified as high-risk exhibited a growth rate approximately 15 percentage points lower than their low-risk counterparts.
The Role of AI in Employment Trends
This trend has accelerated notably since the emergence of ChatGPT in late 2022, underscoring the rapid changes brought about by advances in AI technology.
Despite these significant shifts in job distribution, the researchers found that the risk of AI substitution has yet to create considerable differences in wage growth. Their analysis of median hourly wage growth across various occupations revealed that, since 2019, the risk of AI substitution has not substantially influenced wage trends.
However, the authors cautioned that as AI technologies continue to advance, this dynamic could change. They stated, “As the labour market continues to adjust and AI tools become more generative, income effects may be more pronounced.”
Contextualising AI’s Impact
The findings of this report align with recent evidence from the European Union, which suggests that while firms that adopt AI technologies often experience higher productivity, this does not necessarily translate into immediate job losses. Instead, the immediate impact appears to be a restructuring of the workforce, favouring roles that are more resistant to automation while posing challenges for junior workers in high-risk positions.
