Hottest years: Forecast Highlights Significant Temperature Anomalies
hottest years — The year 2025 is almost certain to rank as one of the three hottest years on record, according to an analysis released Thursday by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the European Union’s satellite monitoring system. This conclusion follows the global temperature analysis for October, which was noted as the third-hottest October ever recorded, with an average temperature of 15.14°C (59°F).
This figure represents a worrying 0.70°C (1.26°F) rise compared to the 1991–2020 average. Moreover, last month’s global average temperature was 1.55°C (2.79°F) higher than the pre-industrial average recorded from 1850 to 1900. Notably, this marks the first instance since April that the global temperature anomaly in a single month has exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Comparative Analysis with Previous Years
While October 2025’s temperatures were 0.16°C (0.29°F) cooler than the record-breaking October of 2023, which remains the hottest October on record, the overall trend indicates a significant long-term climate shift. The 12-month period from November 2024 to October 2025 has seen an average temperature 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 1991–2020 average and 1.5°C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels.
Implications for Climate Commitments
In light of these readings, it is now almost certain that 2025 will be the second- or third-hottest year on record, likely sitting at or just below the temperature level of 2023. The year 2024 currently holds the title for the hottest year ever recorded. Projections suggest that the three-year period from 2023 to 2025 will surpass the 1.5°C threshold, even if the average rise in 2025 itself does not exceed it. This would represent a first in recorded history for a three-year average to reach such elevated levels.
Warnings from Global Environmental Bodies
The findings echo a warning issued last week by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), which highlighted the risk of the global multi-year average temperature exceeding the 1.5°C threshold within the next decade. This escalating trend poses challenges to the commitments set forth under the Paris Agreement and raises urgent questions about the future of global climate action.
