Global recorded music sales are projected to reach $56.8 billion by 2030, according to forecasts from research firm Omdia. This marks a significant milestone in the industry’s ongoing recovery, with retail sales expected to hit $48.3 billion in 2026, continuing the trend of annual growth for the twelfth consecutive year.
- As the music industry continues to evolve, these projections from Omdia reflect a broader trend of recovery and growth, setting the stage for a dynamic future in the global recorded music landscape.
Recorded music: Steady Growth in the Music Market
The latest figures reveal that the global recorded music market is expected to surpass the $50 billion mark in 2027. Key drivers of this growth include increased consumer spending on both physical and digital music formats, as well as revenue generated through advertising, performance rights, and synchronisation services.
Subscription Services Lead the Charge
Subscription services such as Spotify, Apple Music, and YouTube Music are expected to play a pivotal role in driving market expansion. Omdia forecasts that subscription retail sales will rise by 7.2 per cent in 2026, climbing to $30.5 billion from $28.4 billion in 2025. By 2030, subscription revenues are projected to exceed $37 billion, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 5.4 per cent.
Advertising Revenue on the Rise
Alongside subscription growth, advertising revenue is anticipated to grow at a faster pace than physical music sales over the next five years. Omdia forecasts a compound annual growth rate of 4.3 per cent for advertising, in contrast to 3.4 per cent for physical formats. Combined audio and video advertising revenue is set to increase to $5.3 billion in 2026, eventually reaching $6.2 billion by 2030.
Physical Sales Still Significant
Despite a slower growth rate, physical music sales are projected to remain the second-largest source of recorded music revenue worldwide. Spending on physical formats is expected to rise, albeit at a moderated pace, with annual growth forecasted to reach 1.9 per cent by 2030, resulting in a value of $8.3 billion.
China’s Rising Influence in the Music Market
China’s ascent in the global music market is noteworthy, as the country is expected to surpass the UK in 2028 and Japan in 2029, becoming the world’s second-largest recorded music market. By 2030, China is projected to account for 8.7 per cent of global recorded music retail revenue, an increase from 5.8 per cent in 2025. This growth underscores China’s emergence as a significant player in the music industry.
The United States Maintains Its Lead
While China rises in the ranks, the United States is forecast to remain the largest recorded music market globally, although its share of global sales is expected to decline from 40.3 per cent in 2025 to 38.4 per cent in 2030. This shift highlights the changing dynamics within the music industry as emerging markets gain ground.
Industry Optimism Ahead
Simon Dyson, senior principal analyst at Omdia, expressed optimism about the industry’s trajectory, stating, “Music companies should be encouraged by our latest forecasts, with plenty of reasons for optimism. Global retail sales are set for new record highs over the next five years, and the $60 billion milestone is expected to be reached early in the next decade.”
Acknowledging China’s Contributions
Dyson also emphasised the significance of China’s growth, stating, “China becoming the world’s second-largest music market is significant news for the industry. The country has long been viewed as a major emerging opportunity, and these forecasts show it is now delivering meaningful value to the global music business.”
As the music industry continues to evolve, these projections from Omdia reflect a broader trend of recovery and growth, setting the stage for a dynamic future in the global recorded music landscape.
