greek banking — Greek lenders are on track for strong growth, supported by resilient tourism trends and continued corporate lending expansion, according to UBS.
Despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns about the tourism season, the investment bank’s analysis indicates that the impact on Greece’s economy and banking sector has been limited. This assessment, shared by Greek business outlet Newmoney, relies on weekly international arrival figures at Athens International Airport, which serve as a key indicator of the Greek tourism industry’s performance.
As of June 8, 2026, international arrivals showed a modest increase of approximately 1.1 per cent year-on-year; however, this growth is significantly slower compared to previous years, where increases reached 12 per cent in 2025, 19 per cent in 2024, and 23 per cent in 2023. Yet, UBS notes a positive trend, as arrivals improved compared to April, when numbers were down by roughly 8 per cent year-on-year.
UBS highlights that concerns surrounding the regional conflict have not substantially impacted tourism demand. Bank executives have echoed this sentiment, maintaining a reassuring tone during their second-quarter earnings presentations. They reported no negative effects on business loan demand or broader economic activity directly linked to the ongoing conflict.
This is particularly significant, as strong corporate credit expansion is viewed as the main driver of profitability for Greek banks in the coming years. The continuity of business borrowing and investment is expected to sustain healthy earnings growth, even amidst external uncertainties.
Although tourism is vital to the Greek economy, UBS concludes that banks’ direct exposure to the sector remains relatively modest. The investment bank estimates that tourism-related lending accounts for around 6 per cent of the total loan portfolios of Greece’s four systemic banks and approximately 8 per cent of their corporate lending books.
- Piraeus Bank has the highest exposure at roughly 7.7 per cent.
- Alpha Bank follows at approximately 6.7 per cent.
- The National Bank of Greece stands at 4.7 per cent.
- Eurobank has the lowest exposure at around 4.5 per cent.
The broad diversification of loan portfolios provides a crucial layer of protection against sector-specific shocks. Across these four banks, housing and consumer lending constitute about 28.2 per cent of total portfolios, while trade accounts for approximately 16 per cent. Manufacturing and financial services each contribute roughly 8.8 per cent, with shipping representing about 7.6 per cent of total lending portfolios.
While geopolitical tensions could theoretically impact maritime trade and shipping activity, UBS reports strong performance in their shipping loan books, indicating that overall exposure remains manageable.
Amidst these findings, UBS has reaffirmed its positive stance on the Greek banking sector, maintaining a buy recommendation for all four systemic banks. The bank anticipates that ongoing growth in corporate lending, along with acquisitions pursued across the sector, will bolster earnings per share and returns on equity in the coming years.
In terms of valuation, UBS identifies the most significant upside potential in Piraeus Bank and Alpha Bank. The target price for Piraeus Bank is set at €11.20, indicating a potential upside of around 20 per cent from current levels, while Alpha Bank’s target price stands at €4.90, reflecting approximately 19 per cent potential upside. For the National Bank of Greece, the target price is €18.20, and for Eurobank, it is €4.70.
UBS’s overarching view is that strong corporate credit demand, resilient tourism activity, and limited direct exposure to sectors vulnerable to geopolitical uncertainty continue to support the investment case for Greek banks.
